Rakhine offensive (2023–present)

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Rakhine Offensive
Part of Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

Map of gains as of 18 March 2024 made by the Arakan Army since 2023
Date13 November 2023 - present
(5 months and 1 week)
Location
Rakhine State, Paletwa Township (Chin State) and Ngape Township (Magway Region), Myanmar
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Arakan Army captures 9 major towns and 8 townships[a]
Belligerents
 Tatmadaw
Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army[1] [2]		 Arakan Army
Commanders and leaders
Units involved

 Tatmadaw

Disputed

Arakan Army
Strength
Unknown 38,000+ (self-claimed February 2024)
15,000+ (estimated February 2024)
Casualties and losses
  • 111 civilians killed, 357 injured (per a statement by AA, 18 February 2024)[4]
  • nearly 200 civilians killed, more than 500 injured (per RFA, 3 April 2024)[5]
  • more than 300,000 displaced (per UNOCHA, 14 March 2024)[6]

On November 13, 2023, the Arakan Army (AA), one of the dozens of ethnic resistance groups active in the civil war in Myanmar, launched a military offensive against Myanmar's military junta in Rakhine and southern Chin State. Fighting began concurrently with the launch of Operation 1027, which the Arakan Army, as a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, also participated in. The offensive broke an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the junta that had been in place for a year. During the offensive, the Arakan Army would capture several towns in northern Rakhine including Mrauk U, the capital of Mrauk-U District and the historical capital of Arakan. They would then focus on attacking Sittwe, the state capital, and Ann, the headquarters of the junta's western command. International Institute for Strategic Studies reported AA’s sweeping gains "are already enough to enable self-rule over a large portion of the Rakhine homeland and to reshape the wider balance of power in Myanmar."[7]

Background[edit]

Further information: Conflict in Rakhine State (2016–present) and Myanmar civil war (2021-present)

The Arakan Army and its civilian wing the United League of Arakan were founded in 2009 and quickly became one of Myanmar's strongest rebel groups.[8] They gain territory in northern Rakhine and Paletwa Township by 2018 and fought wth the Tatmadaw military in late 2018 after the central government entered their territory.[9] The fighting intensified until the Arakan Army announced a unilateral ceasefire in 2020 so that the 2020 general election could be held.[10]

After the resurgence of civil war in 2021, the Arakha Army focused more on expanding their administrative capabilities.[8] However, over the 2022 monsoon season, the informal ceasefire reached in late 2020 between the Arakan Army (AA) and the junta broke down. With the military's attention diverted to the increasing resistance elsewhere and increasing popular support for an alliance with the NUG, the AA sought to expand its influence into southern Rakhine.[11]

On 26 November 2022, the Arakan Army and the junta agreed to a temporary ceasefire brokered by Yōhei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation. Arakan Army spokespeople maintained that they agreed to the ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, as opposed to international pressure. The Arakan Army did not withdraw from fortifications held at the time of the ceasefire.[12]

After the beginning of Operation 1027, the displays of Tatmadaw incompetence and the rapid gains made by the Three Brotherhood Alliance inspired many previously disconnected resistance groups began to work towards unity to overthrow the Tatmadaw, which came into power after a coup in 2021. The Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation (EAO) made up of primarily Arakanese which fights for the self-determination of the Arakan, broke the 1-year ceasefire agreed to in 2022 on 13 November 2023 by attacking Border Guard Police in Rathedaung Township.

After several months, the Arakan Army has made rapid gains throughout Rakhine and southern Chin State, capturing 8 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, alongside 9 major towns throughout the state. Despite wide support for the offensive, ethnic Rohingya have been in conflict with the Arakan Army, with many accusing the Tatmadaw of attempting to stir ethnic conflict using several aligned EAO's and protests.

Timeline[edit]

Operation 1027 begins[edit]

On the morning of 13 November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) attacked two Border Guard Police stations in Rathedaung Township, breaking the Rakhine State Ceasefire Agreement between the junta and the Arakan Army. Dong Paik camp was captured by 6:30 am. On 14 November, the junta had already abandoned around 40 outposts in Rakhine state after attacks by the Arakan Army, but few came under their immediate control.[13] Dozens of Myanmar security officers surrendered to the Arakan Army the following day.[14]

The following night, the Arakan Army launched an attack on Pauktaw, seizing the township police station. By the next morning, the Arakan Army had taken control of the town. The junta sent two helicopter gunships alongside naval support to fire back, including at civilian housing, with heavy machine gun fire. Pauktaw's proximity to the Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, posed a threat to the junta.[15] Junta forces detained about 100 residents who were unable to flee, and positioned themselves to surround the town, using two navy ships to blockade the harbour.[16]

On 14 November, the Arakan Army launched an offensive in Paletwa Township on the Chin-Rakhine border. The Arakan Army accused the Tatmadaw of using chemical weapons during the ensuing battles.[17] On 6 December, the Arakan Army announced that they had captured a major military base in the township.[18]

On 8 January 2024, the Arakan Army continued Operation 1027 and captured the Taung Shey Taung base and its 200 junta soldiers in Kyauktaw Township, Rakhine State. They then escalated their offensive into Paletwa Township, Chin State with the aim of capturing Paletwa, a strategic town for the Indo-Myanmar Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project[19] On 15 January, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa and the entire township, declaring it a "military council-free area."[20] A week later, the Arakan Army captured the town of Pauktaw in Rakhine State concluding a three-month battle.[21]

On 17 January 2024, the Taingen camp on the Falam road to the Indian border was captured, with Chin resistance forces seizing arms and ammunition.[22] On 20 January 2024, after more than 600 junta soldiers and refugees crossed the India–Myanmar border, the Government of India announced a plan to fence the entire border.[23]

Spillover into Bangladesh[edit]

Further information: Spillover of the Myanmar civil war (2021-present)

On 3 February 2024, as the clashes between the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw increased in Rakhine, mortar shells and several bullets reportedly landed in Bangladesh territory, which injured some local residents. Repeated bursts of gunfire and explosions were be heard across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border from Ukhia, Cox's Bazar.[24] At least 229 Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel entered Bangladesh through the Tumbru border point seeking refuge from AA, where the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) disarmed them and gave them shelter in Bandarban district.[25] On 5 February 2024, a Bangladeshi woman and a Rohingya man died from a mortar shell that fell on the Ghumdum border in Bandarban, reportedly fired by Myanmar.[26]

Fall of Mrauk U[edit]

Mrauk U ancient temples in 2017

The Arakan Army captured most remaining Tatmadaw bases in Minbya by 6 February, almost taking full control of the township. On the same day, the Arakan Army seized the Taung Pyo junta outpost along the border with Bangladesh in Maungdaw Township.[27] The Arakan Army captured Kyauktaw the next day and continued fighting in Mrauk U and Ramree.[28] The Tatmadaw abandoned Myebon to reinforce Kyaukphyu on 9 February, leaving ammunition behind in their rush and abandoning the southern township of Mrauk-U District.[29] The following day, AA took the town of Mrauk U completing their control over the township. During the battle, three Myanmar Navy landing craft were reportedly sunk.[30][31] In response to the seizure of the three towns, the junta blew up bridges in Kyauktaw Township and the state capital, Sittwe.[32]

On 15 February, the Arakan Army captured Myebon[33] and started intensifying their assaults on Ramree. These assaults killed around 80 junta reinforcements between 24 and 26 February.[34] On 28 February, the Arakan Army captured the final junta outpost in Minbya Township, taking full control of the township.[35]

Sittwe offensive[edit]

On 5 March, the Arakan Army reportedly captured the town of Ponnagyun and its surrounding township.[36] During the battle, junta warships and fighter jets shelled the town, eventually destroying the Zay Ti Pyin bridge connecting Ponnagyun to Rathedaung.[37] The Arakan Army stated that it continued assaults on Rathedaung and Buthidaung Townships. The capture of Ponnagyun is significant as it is only 33 kilometres northeast of the regional capital, Sittwe, and allows the Arakan Army to threaten the city.[38]

On 12 March, after an 85-day battle, the Arakan Army captured the town of Ramree.[39] In Maungdaw Township, AA also captured a border outpost forcing 179 junta soldiers to flee into neighboring Bangladesh.[40] On 17 March, the Arakan Army captured the town of Rathedaung, cutting off Sittwe from northern Rakhine State.[41]

Ann offensive[edit]

On 24 March, the Arakan Army began an offensive on Ann Township, launching attacks on Ann, the headquarters of the junta's Western Command. Ann's location is strategically important as the link between Rakhine and Magway Region via the Minbu-Ann road through the Arakan Mountains and as a gateway preventing AA from attacking southern Rakhine State.[42] On 27 March, AA forces seized the camp near Ge Laung and Lone Kauk villages of Ann township, where the junta’s Western Regional Military Headquarters is located.[43]

On 2 April, they began attacking regime forces in Ngape Township, Magway on the other side of the Arakan Mountains.[42] The Arakan Army announced it had captured a portion of the Ann-Minbu Highway, cutting off Ann from neighboring Padein.[44]

Rohingya combatants[edit]

Between 4 February and 6 February, the Arakan Army launched attacks on Rakhine Border Guard Police (BGP) outposts in Maungdaw Township. The Arakan Army later alleged that the Rohingya ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation fought alongside the Rakhine BGP, allegations they gave no evidence towards.[3] On 6 February the Arakan Army and the RSO cooperated on a joint assault against the Arakan Rohingya Army, who had captured a BGP camp along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.[45] 2 days later, the RSO denounced AA's accusations and the AA labeling them as "Bengalis" among other issues.[46] Some time in March, a Rohingya man was shot in Sittwe. After the Arakan Army was blamed, it was found that the shooting was committed by the Arakan Liberation Army, working as a proxy of the junta to stir ethnic tensions.[1]

In late February, despite the conscription law only applying to citizens, the military junta reportedly began to conscript displaced Rohingyas living in Kyaukphyu. On 6 March, in response to this junta recruitment, the AA urged Rohingya people to flee into AA-controlled areas despite the tense relations between the AA and Rohingya EAOs.[47] In Buthidaung, ARSA was allegedly training Rohingya people for the junta.[1] Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, stated that at least 1,000 people from the Rohingya community being taken by the military from Buthidaung, Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, and dozens have been killed while being used as human shields in Rathedaung Township.[48] On April 15th, the Arakha Army clashed with the ARSA in Buthidaung, resulting in 25 Rohingya deaths and 3,000 fleeing.[2] ARSA and ARA reportedly fought with the Tatmadaw, where they burnt down homes and kidnapped civilians.[49]

Civilian attacks[edit]

See also: War crimes during the Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

Junta shelling of a crowded market in Sittwe killed 12 people and critically injured 18 on 27 February.[50] According to RFA’s figures, 73 civilians were killed and 103 were injured between March 1 and March 18 for the junta sent airstrikes and artillery fire into communities captured by the rebel ethnic Arakan Army. In Myay Pon, junta airstrikes destroyed homes and schools; while in Mrauk-U, aerial drone attacks on March 15 and March 17 in ethnic Rakhine neighborhoods left three dead and eight injured.[6] The UN chief António Guterres expressed "alarm" about the air attacks and called for calm.[51]

The military accused AA of firing into Sittwe's Kathe neighborhood on 9 March, killing seven civilians.[4] AA reportedly slaughtered military families attempting to flee Kyauktaw in Rakhine.[52]

Information warfare[edit]

A social media post in March 2024 showed the Rohingya protesting against the AA. Aung Kyaw Moe, a cabinet member of NUG, wrote in an X post that junta "is using the Rohingya as a proxy to protest against AA in Buthidang is not definitely organic."[48]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Townships: Kyauktaw Township, Minbya Township, Mrauk-U Township, Myebon Township, Pauktaw Township, Ponnagyun Township, Ramree Township, Rathedaung Township
    Towns: Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Myebon, Paletwa (Chin State), Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, Ramree, Rathedaung

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d "Myanmar's Junta Plays Both Rakhine and Rohingya for Fools". The Irrawaddy. 26 March 2024. Archived from the original on March 30, 2024.
  2. ^ a b ဘူးသီးတောင်တိုက်ပွဲ ရိုဟင်ဂျာ ၂၅ ဦးသေဆုံး၊ ၃၀၀၀ နီးပါး ထွက်ပြေးနေရ. April 15, 2024. Radio Free Asia Archived April 15, 2024, at the Wayback Machine
  3. ^ a b ""On 4 February 2024, in Taungpyoletwea town (Maungdaw township, Maungdaw district, Rakhine state), the ULA/AA attacked the Taung Pyo Let Yar tactical hilltop base of the Border Guard Police. The ULA/AA alleged that the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization fought alongside the Border Guard Police. Casualties unknown."". ACLED Dashboard.
  4. ^ a b "Indiscriminate shelling kills family in western Myanmar". RFA. 2024-03-11. Archived from the original on April 1, 2024.
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  22. ^ "Around 30 Myanmar Junta Personnel Killed in Chin State: Resistance". The Irrawaddy. January 17, 2024. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
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  45. ^ "Bangladeshis fret over unconfirmed return of Rohingya militant Nabi Hossain amid Myanmar conflict". bdnews24. 9 February 2024. Archived from the original on March 29, 2024.
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  48. ^ a b Sarah Shamim (2024-03-22). "How is renewed violence in Myanmar affecting the Rohingya?". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on April 1, 2024.
  49. ^ Myanmar Junta Using Rohingya Recruits to Sow Ethnic Hatred: Activists. Brian Wei. The Irrawaddy. April 19, 2024. Archived April 19, 2024, at the Wayback Machine
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  52. ^ Andrew Nachemson (2024-03-26). "'Backs to the wall': Myanmar military prepares to mark Armed Forces Day". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on March 31, 2024.
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