Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

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Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
← 2022 No later than 6 May 2027
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
 
First Minister Humza Yousaf meets with First Minister of Northern Ireland designate Michelle O'Neill, 2023 (cropped).jpg
Official portrait of Gavin Robinson MP crop 2.jpg
Naomi_Long_MLA.jpg
Leader Michelle O'Neill[n 1] Gavin Robinson[n 2] Naomi Long
Party Sinn Féin DUP Alliance
Leader since 23 January 2017[n 3] 29 March 2024 26 October 2016
Leader's seat Mid Ulster MP (not an MLA)[n 4] Belfast East
Last election 27 seats, 29.0% 25 seats, 21.3% 17 seats, 13.5%
 
Doug Beattie.png
Colum Eastwood SDLP Conference 2023.jpg
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Beattie Colum Eastwood Jim Allister
Party Ulster Unionist SDLP TUV
Leader since 27 May 2021 14 November 2015 7 December 2007
Leader's seat Upper Bann MP (not an MLA)[n 5] North Antrim
Last election 9 seats, 11.2% 8 seats, 9.1% 1 seat, 7.6%
 
Eamonn McCann (cropped).jpg
Leader Eamonn McCann[n 6]
Party People Before Profit
Last election 1 seat, 1.1%
Incumbent First Minister and
deputy First Minister

Michelle O'Neill (SF) &
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)


A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly by 6 May 2027.

After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[2] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[4][5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[6][7] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[8] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[9]

This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[10] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Doug Beattie, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Colum Eastwood, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, in addition to People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership.

Background[edit]

Main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation

Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[11] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.

After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[12] No government was formed by the deadline.[13] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline,[14] the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022.[15][16][17] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[14][18][19] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[20][21]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[22] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[23] However, the DUP boycott continued.[24] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2024.[25][26][27]

On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[28] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling[edit]

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SF
N 		DUP U APNI O UUP U SDLP N TUV U Green O Aontú N PBP O Other Lead
9–12 Feb 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 31% 24% 14% 10% 7% 6% 1% 2% 1% 4% 7%
3 Feb 2024 Establishment of the new executive
27–30 Oct 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,046 31% 28% 16% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3%
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 31% 26% 15% 10% 6% 5% 2% 2% 1% 2% 5%
18 May 2023 2023 local elections - 30.9% 23.3% 13.3% 10.9% 8.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0%
5.4%
NI Conservatives on 0.1%
 7.6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,557 29% 25% 13% 11% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4%
3–14 Mar 2023 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News N/A 30.6% 23.9% 15.4% 11.3% 6.7% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 2.2%
1.7%
NI Conservatives on 1.3%
 6.7%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,499 31% 25% 15% 10% 7% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 32% 27% 15% 9% 7% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 30% 24% 16% 11% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6%
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News 1,000 30.9% 20.1% 15.3% 9.6% 10.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 10.8%
5 May 2022 2022 Assembly election – 29.0% 21.3% 13.5% 11.2% 9.1% 7.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1%
3.8%
NI Conservatives on 0.03%
 7.7%

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings[edit]

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 43% 37% 20% +6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 41% 37% 22% +4%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 41% 40% 19% +4%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 46% 37% 17% +9%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 40% 42% 18% –2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 24% 66% 10% –42%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 65% 8% –38%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 25% 63% 12% –38%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 29% 65% 6% –36%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 27% 64% 9% –37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 38% 39% 23% –1%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 40% 38% 22% +2%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 37% 38% 25% –1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 45% 37% 18% +8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 46% 37% 17% +9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 34% 38% 28% –4%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 38% 33% 29% +5%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 28% 42% 30% –14%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 37% 32% 31% +5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 34% 32% 0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 26% 43% 31% –17%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 32% 40% 28% –8%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 33% 38% 29% –5%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 31% 39% 30% –8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 39% 27% –5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 23% 63% 14% –40%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 61% 12% –34%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 27% 57% 16% –30%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 27% 59% 14% –32%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 31% 54% 15% –23%

See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald who is a TD for Dublin Central in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature of the Republic of Ireland). O'Neill is the party's vice president.
  2. ^ Robinson is the interim leader of the DUP following the resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson in March 2024.
  3. ^ As "Party leader in the North"
  4. ^ Robinson sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Belfast East rather than in the Assembly.
  5. ^ Eastwood sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Foyle rather than in the Assembly
  6. ^ People Before Profit has a collective leadership, but for the purposes of registration to The Electoral Commission, McCann is named as the party's leader in Northern Ireland.[1]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Registration Summary". The Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 4 June 2016. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  2. ^ Pogatchnik, Shawn (28 September 2022). "UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power". Politico. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
  3. ^ "NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes". BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
  4. ^ McClafferty, Enda; McCormack, Jayne (2 November 2022). "NI election date to be confirmed soon - Steve Baker". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  5. ^ "Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue". BBC News. 19 January 2023. Retrieved 22 January 2023.
  6. ^ O'Carroll, Lisa (9 February 2023). "Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  7. ^ Pogatchnik, Shawn (9 February 2023). "UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024". POLITICO. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  8. ^ Elizabeth Piper and Sarah Young (1 February 2024). "UK unveils DUP deal to restore Northern Ireland government". Reuters.
  9. ^ Amanda Ferguson and Natalie Thomas (4 February 2024). "Northern Ireland appoints Irish nationalist as First Minister in historic shift". Reuters.
  10. ^ Carroll, Rory (29 March 2024). "Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as Democratic Unionist party leader". The Guardian. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
  11. ^ "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  12. ^ Sproule, Luke (12 May 2022). "NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean?". BBC News. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
  13. ^ Simpson, Mark; Andrews, Chris (27 October 2022). "DUP blocks NI government as election call looms". BBC News. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  14. ^ a b "Secretary of State for Northern Ireland - Statement on Executive Formation". UK Government. 9 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  15. ^ https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9939/CBP-9939.pdf
  16. ^ https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/48/enacted
  17. ^ McCormack, Jayne (5 December 2022). "Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  18. ^ McCormack, Jayne; Fox, Matt (9 November 2022). "Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  19. ^ Hughes, Brendan (18 January 2023). "Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election". BelfastLive.
  20. ^ "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) (changed from Northern Ireland (Executive Formation)) Bill - Parliamentary Bills - UK Parliament".
  21. ^ "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022-23 - House of Commons Library".
  22. ^ "The Windsor Framework". Institute for Government. 27 March 2023.
  23. ^ Press Association (27 February 2023). "Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal". Belfast News Letter.
  24. ^ "DUP: No dissent within the party over Stormont boycott, says leader". BBC News. 5 October 2023.
  25. ^ "Stormont stalemate: Deadline to restore Northern Ireland Executive to expire". BBC News. 18 January 2024.
  26. ^ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9939/
  27. ^ https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3672
  28. ^ "Northern Ireland: New deal means goods will flow freely throughout UK - Jeffrey Donaldson". 30 January 2024.
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