File:Estimations of Human Brain Emulation Required Performance.svg

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Summary

Description
English: Estimates of how much processing power is needed to emulate a human brain at various levels, along with the fastest supercomputer from TOP500 mapped by year, and a trendline. Exponential plot, with assumption of doubling of computational power every 1.1 years for the trendline.
Date
Source Own work, data from [1], PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg, and [2].
Author Tga.D
SVG development
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Source code
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Gnuplot code

set terminal svg size 800 600 fname "Times,13" set output "Estimations of Human Brain Emulation Required Performance.svg" set notitle set key reverse Left left at 1993, 10**40 noautotitles box # good chunk of whitespace to put the key in set datafile separator ","  set logscale y # use a logarithmic scale, for easier visualization of exponential growth set format y "10^{%T}" set yrange[10**9:10**45] set ylabel "Flop/s"  set xrange [1990:2065] set xlabel "Year" set xtics 1990,5,2065 set mxtics 5 #set grid # I think it looks better without, but it's a matter of preference  # labels for each of the levels of emulation set label "Analog network population model" at 2010, 10**14.5 left set label "Spiking neural network" at 2010, 10**17.5 right set label "Electrophysiology" at 2035, 10**22.5 right set label "Metabolome" at 2047, 10**25.5 right set label "Proteome" at 2050, 10**26.5 right set label "States of protein complexes" at 2054, 10**27.5 right set label "Distribution of complexes" at 2064, 10**30.5 right set label "Stochastic behavior of single molecules" at 2064, 10**42.5 right  set label "Functional Simulation" at 2020, 10**16.5 left set label "Neural Simulation" at 2030, 10**19.5 left  # best-fit is as of June 2022 list, to two sigfigs # horizontal lines plotted to represent levels of emulation # plot of historical TOP500 #1's stored in a .csv # colors and sizes picked from what I thought was easiest to see # titles done for one of each type of line, for the key plot 87000000000.0*(2**((x-1993)/1.2)) lw 6 lc 0 w lines title "Trendline (doubling every 1.2 years)",\      10**15 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**18 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**22 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**25 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**26 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**27 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**30 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \      10**43 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6" title "Sandberg, Bostrom estimates (2008)",\      10**16 ls 2 dt (50,10) lc rgb "#89CE00", \      10**19 ls 2 dt (50,10) lt rgb "#89CE00" title "Kurzweil estimates (2005)",\      "TOP500.csv" using 1:2 ls 1 lt rgb "#B51963" pt 7 ps .5 with linespoints title "Fastest Supercomputer (TOP500 #1)"

Data

The #1 computer over the years from TOP500, used to generate the supercomputer line at the end of the Gnuplot code. The name of each supercomputer is in the file, but unused in the code/chart. Whole number years represent a June list, .5 represents a November list.   Year,Flop/s,Name 1993,59700000000,CM-5/1024 1993.5,124000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel 1994,143400000000,XP/S140 1994.5,170000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel 1996,220400000000,SR2201/1024 1996.5,368200000000,CP-PACS/2048 1997,1068000000000,ASCI Red 1997.5,1338000000000,ASCI Red 1999,2121000000000,ASCI Red 1999.5,2379000000000,ASCI Red 2000.5,4938000000000,ASCI White 2001,7226000000000,ASCI White 2002,35860000000000,Earth-Simulator 2004.5,70720000000000,BlueGene/L beta-System 2005,136800000000000,BlueGene/L 2005.5,280600000000000,BlueGene/L 2007.5,478200000000000,BlueGene/L 2008,1026000000000000,Roadrunner 2008.5,1105000000000000,Roadrunner 2009.5,1759000000000000,Jaguar 2010.5,2566000000000000,Tianhe-1A 2011,8162000000000000,K computer 2011.5,10510000000000000,K computer 2012,16324800000000000,Sequoia 2012.5,17590000000000000,Titan 2013,33862700000000000,Tianhe-2A 2016,93014600000000000,Sunway TaihuLight 2018,122300000000000000,Summit 2018.5,143500000000000000,Summit 2020,415530000000000000,Fugaku 2020.5,442000000000000000,Fugaku 2022,1102000000000000000,Frontier

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current00:40, 22 February 2023Thumbnail for version as of 00:40, 22 February 2023800 × 600 (49 KB)Tga.Dupdated data, fixed colors and styles to be more color blind-friendly
16:11, 7 March 2022Thumbnail for version as of 16:11, 7 March 2022800 × 600 (37 KB)Daemon2010Added Fugaku
06:32, 20 February 2019Thumbnail for version as of 06:32, 20 February 2019800 × 600 (45 KB)Tga.DIncrease font size; adjust label positions
06:15, 20 February 2019Thumbnail for version as of 06:15, 20 February 2019800 × 600 (45 KB)Tga.DRegenerated with a newer version of gnuplot, and more recent TOP500 data. Opted to not update the trendline, as the divergence from expected seems more relevant.
22:20, 18 June 2013Thumbnail for version as of 22:20, 18 June 2013800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.DNew #1 on the TOP 500 June 2013 list.
01:07, 24 December 2012Thumbnail for version as of 01:07, 24 December 2012800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.Dlarge mediawiki-generated png versions had messed up spacing in the key, switching the order to see if it fixes it
00:29, 24 December 2012Thumbnail for version as of 00:29, 24 December 2012800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.DUser created page with UploadWizard
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