2024 North Macedonian parliamentary election
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All 123 seats in the Assembly 62 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 North Macedonia portal |
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in North Macedonia on 8 May 2024, potentially alongside a second round of presidential elections, if a run-off is required.[1]
Electoral system[edit]
Of the 123 seats in the Assembly of the Republic, 120 are elected from six 20-seat constituencies in North Macedonia using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are elected by Macedonians living abroad,[2] but are only filled if the number of votes exceeds that of the elected candidate with the fewest votes in North Macedonia in the previous election. If a list crosses this threshold, it wins one seat; to win two seats, a list needs to win twice the number of votes, and to win three seats the threshold is three times the number of votes. These seats were not filled in the 2016 elections due to insufficient turnout.[3]
Opinion polls[edit]
 |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | For a European Future | VLEN | European Front | Your Macedonia | Levica | ZNAM | Others | Lead | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSM | LDP/DOM | Besa | LD | A | ASh[f] | BDI | PDSh | VMRO-DPMNE | ||||||||
| 2024 presidential election | 24 Apr 2024 | 905,937 | 20.5 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 41.2 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 0.9 [g] | 20.7 | ||||||
| CRPC | 20 Apr 2024 | 1250 | 25.6 | — | 14.5 | 9.5 | 38 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 11.2 | |||||
| CRPC | 8-13 Apr 2024 | 1210 | 26.8 | — | 12.7 | 11.3 | 37.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | — | 10.7 | |||||
| МКД.мк | 15-24 Mar 2024 | 1200 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 1.6 | 13.0 | — | 40.8 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 24.8 | ||||
| CRPC | 4-7 Mar 2024 | 1085 | 24.6 | — | 13.6 | 11.6 | 39.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | — | 14.8 | |||||
| IPIS | 20 Feb 2024 | 1212 | 21.8 | — | 8.6 | 4.1 | 11.5 | — | 38.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 18.8 | |||
| IPDV | 5–9 Nov 2023 | 1050 | 23.0 | — | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 9.7 | — | 35.6 | 5.9 | — | 8.2 | 12.6 | |
| IPIS | 29 Oct 2023 | 1055 | 21.8 | — | 4.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 10.8 | — | 36.2 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 17.4 | |
| IPIS | 23–26 May 2023 | 1,112 | 21.6 | — | 4.4 | — | — | 5 | 12.4 | — | 38.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 16.6 | |
| IRI | 8 Apr – 4 May 2023 | 1,204 | 17 | — | 7 | — | 2 | 8 | 14 | — | 32 | 11 | — | 7[h] | 15 | |
| NDI | 13–14 Apr 2023 | 1,003 | 23.6 | — | 6.6 | — | — | 6.3 | 11.4 | — | 39.6 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 2 | 16 | |
| IPIS | Mar 2023 | 1,114 | 27.1 | — | 8.5 | 4.9 | 27.1[i] | — | 39.2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | — | 11.1 | |||
| IDSCS | 22 Feb – 9 Mar 2023 | 1,002 | 24 | — | 2 | — | — | 7 | 18 | — | 38 | 9 | — | — | 14 | |
| МКД.мк | 6–16 Feb 2023 | 1,200 | 22.3 | 0.2 | 4.1 | — | — | 6.7 | 14.7 | — | 39.2 | 8.1 | — | 3.4 | 16.9 | |
| IRI | 19 Dec 2022 | 1,200 | 16.3 | — | 7.0 | — | — | 7.8 | 13.3 | — | 33.3 | 12.3 | — | 8.8 | 17 | |
| МКД.мк | 7–13 Nov 2022 | 1,200 | 20.3 | 0.9 | 7.3 | — | 3.5 | 3.9 | 13.6 | 0.7 | 40.9 | 8.9 | — | 1.1 | 20.6 | |
| IPIS | 4–6 May 2022 | 1,111 | 30.1 | — | 2.8 | — | 1.9 | 7.1 | 13.4 | — | 39.4 | 5.4 | — | — | 9.3 | |
| IPIS | 19–22 Oct 2021 | 1,102 | 28.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | — | 8.0 | 11.0 | — | 37.7 | 6.6 | — | — | 8.8 | ||
| 2021 Skopje election | 17 Oct 2021 | – | 24.04 | 4.20 | 1.00 | — | 5.17 | 11.91 | — | 35.89 | 9.19 | — | 4.17[j] | 11.9 | ||
| Kantar TNS Brima | 27 Aug – 9 Sep 2021 | 1,201 | 30.8 | 7.4 | — | — | 9.5 | 11.4 | 1.7 | 27.6 | 7.4 | — | — | 3.2 | ||
| Kantar TNS Brima | 28 May – 16 Jun 2021 | 1,194 | 33.0 | 6.8 | — | — | 10.3 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 28.5 | 7.5 | — | — | 4.5 | ||
| Kantar TNS Brima | 4–6 Apr 2021 | 1,222 | 27.9 | 6.6 | — | — | 8.2 | 11.5 | 1.6 | 27.9 | 9.8 | — | — | Tie | ||
| IPIS | 1–4 Mar 2021 | 1,109 | 31.9 | 1.7 | — | 8.9 | 10.4 | — | 34.7 | 6.6 | — | — | 2.8 | |||
| M-Prospect | 16–24 Dec 2020 | 1,000 | 31.7 | 4.1 | — | 0.9 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 30.8 | 10.6 | — | 0.3[k] | 0.9 | ||
| 2020 parliamentary election | 15 Jul 2020 | – | 35.89 | — | 8.95 | 11.48 | 1.53 | 34.57 | 4.10 | — | 3.49 | 1.3 | ||||
Hypothetical polls[edit]
Nikola Gruevski forms a new party[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SDSM | LDP/DOM | Besa | PDSh | A | ASh | VMRO-DPMNE | BDI | Levica | ZNAM | Gruevski | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratum R&D | 1–6 Oct 2023 | 1,112 | 27.5 | — | 7.3 | 4.7 | 17.6 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 16.0 | 3.8 | 9.9 | ||
Notes[edit]
- ^ Consists of:VMRO-DPMNE (39 Seats), SPM (2), DPSM (1), DS (1), PODEM (1), ROM (1), Party of Vlachs from Macedonia, VOICE for Macedonia, NLP, SDU, DPR, RZPRM, OPER, Dignity, TMRO, MAAK, United for Macedonia and Macedonian Concept
- ^ Consists of: SDSM (31 Seats), LDP (2), NSDP (2), VMRO-NP (1), PDT (1), DOM (1), POPGM (1), SSM (1), DNET, SNSM, BNP, DSR, DSVM, SRM, Party of Democratic Action of Macedonia, Desnica, PDPR and POEN
- ^ Consists of: BDI (13 Seats), Alliance for Albanians Sela's - led (6), PDSH (1), Democratic European Party (1), People's Movement (1), DPT (1), Movement of Turks for Justice and Democracy, Union of Roma in Macedonia and Bosniak Democratic Union
- ^ Consists of: Democratic Movement (3 Seats), Alternativa (2), Alliance for Albanians Taravari's - led (2) and the Besa Movement (1)
- ^ Consists of: GROM (1), INTEGRA and PCER
- ^ In early 2024 two factions emerged within ASh. A faction led by incumbent leader Arben Taravari intended to join VLEN and he later became the coalition's presidential candidate, while a faction led by former leader Ziadin Sela eventually joined the European Front coalition. Both wings of the party held conferences and elected their respective leader as party chairman. The Macedonian electoral commission lists ASh as a member of VLEN, while a court decision ruled that Sela is the official party leader. The decision is being appealed.
- ^ Bravely for Macedonia
- ^ DPTM 2%
- ^ BDI and SDSM together
- ^ Green Humane City
- ^ Integra – Macedonian Conservative Party
