2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
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All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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 Government |
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
Overview[edit]
By district[edit]
Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky by district:[1]
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 172,167 | 68.59% | 78,849 | 31.41% | 0 | 0.00% | 251,016 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 2 | 171,700 | 66.72% | 79,964 | 31.07% | 5,681 | 2.21% | 257,345 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 3 | 101,930 | 36.57% | 173,002 | 62.07% | 3,788 | 1.36% | 278,720 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 4 | 162,946 | 62.24% | 90,536 | 34.58% | 8,330 | 3.18% | 261,812 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 5 | 172,093 | 78.94% | 45,890 | 21.05% | 34 | 0.02% | 218,017 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 6 | 154,468 | 51.00% | 144,736 | 47.79% | 3,684 | 1.22% | 302,888 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| Total | 935,304 | 59.58% | 612,977 | 39.05% | 21,517 | 1.37% | 1,569,798 | 100.0% | |
District 1[edit]
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 County results Comer: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican James Comer, who had represented the district since 2016, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+23.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- James Comer, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Paul Walker, professor[2]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Alonzo Pennington, musician[3]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Paul Walker | 51,094 | 74.6 | |
| Democratic | Alonzo Pennington | 17,398 | 25.4 | |
| Total votes | 68,492 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | James Comer (incumbent) | 172,167 | 68.6 | |
| Democratic | Paul Walker | 78,849 | 31.4 | |
| Total votes | 251,016 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 2[edit]
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 County results Guthrie: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+19.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Brett Guthrie, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Hank Linderman, musician[4]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Brian Pedigo, teacher and farmer[5]
- Rane Eir Olivia Sessions, veteran and former intern for William D. Ford[6]
- Grant Short pilot, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[7]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hank Linderman | 14,516 | 30.0 | |
| Democratic | Brian Pedigo | 13,866 | 28.7 | |
| Democratic | Rane Eir Olivia Sessions | 10,501 | 21.7 | |
| Democratic | Grant Short | 9,470 | 19.6 | |
| Total votes | 48,353 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brett Guthrie (incumbent) | 171,700 | 66.7 | |
| Democratic | Hank Linderman | 79,964 | 31.1 | |
| Independent | Thomas Loecken | 5,681 | 2.2 | |
| Total votes | 257,345 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 3[edit]
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 County result Yarmuth: 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with %63 of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+6.
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- John Yarmuth, incumbent U.S. Representative
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Vickie Yates Glisson, lawyer and former state health secretary[8]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Mike Craven, Ford worker
- Rhonda Palazzo, realtor
Withdrawn[edit]
- Waymen Eddings
Primary results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Vickie Yates Glisson | 11,239 | 49.1 | |
| Republican | Mike Craven | 6,163 | 26.9 | |
| Republican | Rhonda Palazzo | 5,511 | 24.0 | |
| Total votes | 22,913 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Yarmuth (incumbent) | 173,002 | 62.1 | |
| Republican | Vickie Yates Glisson | 101,930 | 36.6 | |
| Libertarian | Gregory Boles | 3,788 | 1.4 | |
| Total votes | 278,720 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 4[edit]
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 County results Massie: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Thomas Massie, who had represented the district since 2012, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+18.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Thomas Massie, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Seth Hall, health insurance worker
Eliminated in primary[edit]
Primary results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Seth Hall | 17,859 | 40.8 | |
| Democratic | Patti Piatt | 16,441 | 37.5 | |
| Democratic | Christina Lord | 9,509 | 21.7 | |
| Total votes | 43,809 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thomas Massie (incumbent) | 162,946 | 62.2 | |
| Democratic | Seth Hall | 90,536 | 34.6 | |
| Independent | Mike Moffett | 8,318 | 2.2 | |
| Independent | David Goodwin (write-in) | 12 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 261,812 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 5[edit]
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 County results Rogers: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the district since 1981, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+31.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Gerardo Serrano
Primary results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hal Rogers (incumbent) | 75,405 | 84.2 | |
| Republican | Gerardo Serrano | 14,177 | 15.8 | |
| Total votes | 89,582 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Kenneth Stepp, attorney
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Scott Sykes
Primary results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kenneth Stepp | 33,584 | 58.7 | |
| Democratic | Scott Sykes | 23,637 | 41.3 | |
| Total votes | 57,221 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hal Rogers (incumbent) | 172,093 | 78.9 | |
| Democratic | Kenneth Stepp | 45,890 | 21.0 | |
| Independent | Bill Ray (write-in) | 34 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 218,017 | 100.0 | ||
District 6[edit]
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 County results Barr: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% McGrath: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Andy Barr, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+9.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Andy Barr, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Chuck Eddy
Primary results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andy Barr (incumbent) | 40,514 | 83.8 | |
| Republican | Chuck Eddy | 7,858 | 16.2 | |
| Total votes | 48,372 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Amy McGrath, retired U.S. Marine fighter pilot[11]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Jim Gray, Mayor of Lexington and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[12]
- Theodore Green[13]
- Daniel Kemph, business analyst
- Reggie Thomas, state senator[14]
- Geoff Young, perennial candidate[15]
Campaign[edit]
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Kentucky's 6th congressional district on its initial list of Republican-held seats considered targets in 2018.[16][17] McGrath's campaign announcement video, entitled "Told Me" where she spoke of her navy service (being the first female Marine to fly an F-18 in combat), attracted much national attention.[18][19][20]
The DCCC opped to support Jim Gray in the primary.[21][22]
Endorsements[edit]
Jim Gray
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Newspapers
Amy McGrath
- U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, former U.S. Senator from New York (2009–present)[26]
- U.S. Representatives
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[27]
- Organizations
Reggie Thomas
- Individuals
- Nancy Jo Kemper, former executive director of the Kentucky Council of Churches and nominee for this seat in 2016
Polling[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Gray | Amy McGrath | Reggie Thomas | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath) | April 17–19, 2018 | 400 | ±5.0% | 35% | 42% | 6% | 3% | 14% |
| Mellman Group (D-Gray) | March 3–6, 2018 | 400 | ±4.9% | 52% | 19% | 6% | — | 23% |
Results[edit]
Map legend
- McGrath—60–70%
- McGrath—50–60%
- McGrath—40–50%
- Gray—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 48,859 | 48.7 | |
| Democratic | Jim Gray | 40,684 | 40.5 | |
| Democratic | Reggie Thomas | 7,226 | 7.2 | |
| Democratic | Geoff Young | 1,574 | 1.6 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Kemph | 1,240 | 1.2 | |
| Democratic | Theodore Green | 835 | 0.8 | |
| Total votes | 100,418 | 100.0 | ||
General election[edit]
Endorsements[edit]
Andy Barr (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
Amy McGrath (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, former U.S. Senator from New York (2009–present)[26]
- U.S. Representatives
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[27]
- Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program[31]
- VoteVets[28]
- With Honor[29]
Polling[edit]
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Andy Barr (R) | Amy McGrath (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | November 1–4, 2018 | 438 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | 2% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr) | October 6–8, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | – | – |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath) | September 30 – October 2, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 51% | – | – |
| Pulse Opinion Research | September 12–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | September 6–8, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF) | September 4–6, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath) | July 7–10, 2018 | 461 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 50% | – | 7% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF) | June 6–7, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
| DCCC (D) | April 30–May 2, 2018 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath) | February 5–7, 2018 | 401 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 44% | – | – |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Andy Barr (R) | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | February 12–13, 2018 | 662 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% |
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[32] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[33] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[35] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[36] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[37] | Tossup | November 7, 2018 |
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andy Barr (incumbent) | 154,468 | 51.0 | |
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 144,736 | 47.8 | |
| Libertarian | Frank Harris | 2,150 | 0.7 | |
| Independent | Rikka Wallin | 1,011 | 0.3 | |
| Independent | James Germalic | 523 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 302,890 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
- ^ reports, New Era staff. "Murray man to run for congress, challenge Comer". Kentucky New Era. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Can Alonzo Pennington Thumbpick His Way into Congress?". LA Progressive. March 10, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Hank Linderman running for Congress". TRISTATEHOMEPAGE. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Danville hosts first public forum for Democratic congressional candidates | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 22, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ By, WES SWIETEK. "Third Democrat files to challenge Guthrie". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Four good Democratic candidates for Kentucky's Second District | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 24, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Kentucky Health Official Running for Congress | NewsRadio 840 WHAS". NewsRadio 840 WHAS. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Here is the list of candidates for 4th Congressional District and KY House, Senate, from the region | NKyTribune". www.nkytribune.com. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Massie Challenger Looks to Paint a Red District Blue". CityBeat Cincinnati. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "McGrath will launch first campaign commercial during UK basketball game". Spectrum News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ Arroyo, Emilie. "Lexington mayor Jim Gray files to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Theodore David Green". Archived from the original on April 14, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ Staff, WKYT News. "State Senator Reggie Thomas to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ "Geoff Young continues suit against Kentucky Democratic Party, even as he seeks its nomination | The State Journal". www.state-journal.com. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
- ^ Cheney, Kyle (January 30, 2017). "Amid Democratic doldrums, DCCC identifies 2018 targets". Politico. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
- ^ Sena, Dan (January 30, 2017). "House Democrats Playing Offense" (PDF). Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
- ^ Kurtzleben, Danielle (August 3, 2017). "Female Retired Marine With Viral Campaign Ad Hopes To Bridge Gap In Democratic Party". NPR.
- ^ Desrochers, Daniel (June 19, 2017). "His blog inflamed Kentucky politics a decade ago. Now he's back". Lexington Herald-Leader.
- ^ Puckett, Jeffrey Lee (August 3, 2017). "Kentucky combat veteran Amy McGrath is going viral with a video announcing Congressional run". The Courier-Journal.
- ^ Murphy, Tim (May 22, 2018). "As a kid, she petitioned Congress for the right to fly fighter planes. Now she's gunning for a seat of her own". Mother Jones.
- ^ Tackett, Michael (January 29, 2018). "From Annapolis to Congress? These Three Women Know Tough Missions". The New York Times.
- ^ "United Steelworkers Endorse Jim Gray for Congress". jimgraycongress.co. Jim Gray for Congress. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on May 24, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Elliot Imse (January 23, 2018). "23 more LGBTQ champions for equality endorsed by Victory Fund". victoryfund.org/. Victory Fund PAC. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Herald-Leader editorial board (May 13, 2018). "Jim Gray for 6th District Democrats". kentucky.com. Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Bradner, Eric (May 21, 2018). "Democratic primary in Kentucky pits openly gay mayor against female fighter pilot". CNN.
- ^ a b Roarty, Alex (August 9, 2017). "Rising Dem star Moulton grants seal of approval to three House candidates". The News & Observer.
- ^ a b "VoteVets PAC Endorses Amy McGrath for Congress". VoteVets.org. Archived from the original on July 8, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
- ^ a b "Our Candidates: Amy McGrath KY-6 (D)". With Honor. Archived from the original on November 14, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
- ^ Donald J. Trump. "Heading to the Great State of Kentucky - Big Rally for Congressman Andy Barr - Fantastic guy, need his vote for MAGA! Strong on Crime, Tax Cuts, Military, Vets & 2nd A. His opponent will NEVER vote for us, only for Pelosi. Andy has my Strongest Endorsement!!! See you in Kentucky". Twitter.
- ^ "Red to Blue". dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
- ^ "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
- ^ "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
External links[edit]
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Campaigns at Curlie
| Official campaign websites
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