2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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   Fetterman: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Oz: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.[1] Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in the 2022 midterms.
In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote.[2] Oz finished with a 0.1% margin ahead of businessman David McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3,[3] making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[4]
The general election was among the most competitive of the 2022 midterms and characterized as highly contentious. Fetterman framed Oz as an elitist carpetbagger with a radical anti-abortion stance in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade, while Oz framed Fetterman as a socialist insufficiently committed to fighting crime. Fetterman's health was also a major issue due to him suffering a stroke days before his primary victory.[5] Although Fetterman led most pre-election polls, concerns towards his health and a scrutinized debate performance helped Oz take a narrow lead before the election.[6][7][8]
Despite Oz's lead in final polls, Fetterman won by a 5% margin, helping provide Senate Democrats a net gain of one seat and their first outright majority since 2015. With Fetterman's victory, elected Democrats held both US Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947.[a]
Republican primary[edit]
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Campaign[edit]
Early campaign[edit]
In October 2020, incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey decided not to run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[9]
By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.[10] However, Parnell's campaign faced a large scandal in November 2021, after his ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell had strangled and spat on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[11] Parnell denied the allegations under oath.[12] Even before these allegations were made, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[12][failed verification] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the couple's children and Parnell suspended his campaign.[13]
Entry of Oz and McCormick[edit]
On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[14] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[14][15] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick, a businessman, into the race prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[16] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of well-funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal."[17]
Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[18][19] Despite this, political commentators largely considered Oz and McCormick to be the frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing them.[20]
The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing Oz of harboring dual loyalties.[21] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[22] Former president Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[23] Oz frequently highlighted this endorsement, it becoming one of his major talking points during the campaign.[20]
Late campaign[edit]
Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz, with both men polling the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth. Her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[24] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[24] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."[25]
Candidates[edit]
Nominees[edit]
- Mehmet Oz, host of The Dr. Oz Show and former cardiologist[26][27]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Kathy Barnette, Armed Forces Reserves veteran, author, political commentator on Fox News, and 2020 nominee to represent Pennsylvania's fourth district in the U.S. House of Representatives[27][28]
- Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018[29][27]
- George Bochetto, Pennsylvania State Boxing Commissioner (1996–2002)[30][31][27]
- Sean Gale, candidate for the Montgomery County Commission in 2019[32][33][27]
- David McCormick, U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009) and CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022)[34]
- Carla Sands, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021)[35][36][27]
Disqualified[edit]
- John Debellis, small business owner[37]
- John Eichenberg, truck driver[38]
- Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate[39]
- Ron Johnson, former Fredonia borough councilor[40][41] (ran as the Constitution nominee)
- Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician[42]
- Max Richardson[43]
- Martin Rosenfeld, Elk County deputy sheriff and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party[44]
- David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner[45]
Withdrew[edit]
- Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for PA-17 in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)[13]
- Craig Snyder, former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[46][47][48]
- Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (ran as an independent)[49]
Declined[edit]
- Kenneth Braithwaite, U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[50]
- Mike Kelly, U.S. representative for PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)[51][52] (endorsed Parnell)
- Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for Policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2021), and candidate for governor in 2018[53]
- Keith Rothfus, U.S. representative for PA-12 (2013–2019)[54][55]
- Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019)[56]
- Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator[57]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump (endorsed Parnell)[58][59][60]
Debates and forums[edit]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||||||
| Kathy Barnette | George Bochetto | Jeff Bartos | Sean Gale | David McCormick | Mehmet Oz | Carla Sands | Everett Stern | |||||
| 1 | Feb. 22, 2022 | BroadandLiberty.com Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry | Becky Corbin | Video | P | P | P | N | A | A | A | P |
| 2 | Apr. 25, 2022 | Nexstar/WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester | Video | P | N | P | N | P | P | P | W |
| 3 | May 4, 2022 | Newsmax TV | Greta Van Susteren Rick Dayton | P | N | P | N | P | P | P | W | |
Endorsements[edit]
- Executive branch officials
- Michael Flynn, U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) (Democratic)[61]
- Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President (2017)[62]
- U.S. senators
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[63]
- U.S. Representatives
- Burgess Owens, Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)[62]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[64]
- State legislators
- Cris Dush, state senator from the 25th district (2020–present)[63]
- Vernon Jones, Georgia state representative (1993–2001, 2017–2021)[62]
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present)[63]
- Organizations
- Club for Growth[65]
- Gun Owners of America[66]
- Pennsylvania State Police Fraternal Order of Police Pioneer Lodge #37[63]
- Republican National Hispanic Assembly[67]
- Susan B. Anthony List[68]
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Jack Brewer, NFL player[70]
- Tomi Lahren, conservative political commentator and television host[62]
- John Ratzenberger, actor[63]
- U.S. Representatives
Fred Keller, U.S. Representative for PA-12 (2019–2023)[71] (switched endorsement to Oz)[72]
- Statewide officials
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present)[73]
- State senators
- Ryan Aument, 36th District (2015–present)[63]
- Wayne Langerholc, 35th district (2017–present)[74]
- Dan Laughlin, 49th district (2017–present)[75]
- Scott Martin, 13th district (2017–present)[63]
- Bob Mensch, 24th district (2009–2022), 147th district (2007–2009)[75]
- Patrick Stefano, 32nd district (2015–present)[74]
- Scott Wagner, 28th district (2014–2018), Republican nominee for Governor in 2018[76]
- Judy Ward, 30th district; formerly the 80th (2015–present)[75]
- State representatives
- Torren Ecker, 193rd district (2019–present)[75]
- Sue Helm, 104th district (2007–2022)[63]
- John D. Hershey, 82nd district (2018–present)[74]
- R. Lee James, 64th district (2013–present)[77]
- Barry Jozwiak, 5th district (2015–present)[63]
- Dawn Keefer, 92nd district (2015–present)[75]
- Jack Rader, 176th district (2015–present)[63]
- Frank Ryan, 101st district (2017–2023)[63]
- Tommy Sankey, 73rd district; formerly the 74th (2013–2022)[75]
- Jesse Topper, 78th district (2014–present)[74]
- Organizations
- Individuals
- John Arnold, philanthropist and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC[78]
- Kenneth Langone, billionaire businessman, investor, and philanthropist[78]
- Ross Perot Jr., real-estate developer[78]
- Judges
- Sandra Schultz Newman, Pennsylvania Supreme Court justice (1996–2006)[63]
- Labor unions
- Fraternal Order of Police Philadelphia – Lodge #5[63]
- Individuals
- Roger Stone, political consultant and lobbyist[79]
- Executive branch officials
- Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council (2017–2018) (Democratic)[80]
- Emil Henry, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions (2005–2007)[80]
- Hope Hicks, Counselor to the President (2020–2021), White House Communications Director (2017–2018), White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017)[81]
- Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council[16]
- Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Trade Representative (2017–2021)[63]
- Justin Muzinich, U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury (2018–2021)[80]
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)[82]
- Dina Powell, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy (2017–2018), Assistant Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs (2005–2007), director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office (2003–2005) (McCormick's wife)[83]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2016[84]
- Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (1995–2007)[85]
- Dan Sullivan, Alaska (2015–present)[86]
- U.S. Governors
- Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007)[63]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Meuser, PA-09 (2019–present)[87]
- Elise Stefanik, New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[63]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-16; formerly PA-05 (2009–present)[88]
- Local officials
- Joel Klein, New York City Schools Chancellor (2002–2011), United States assistant attorney general for the Antitrust Division (1996–2000), Deputy White House Counsel (1993–1995) (Democratic)[89]
- Labor unions
- Individuals
- Stanley Druckenmiller, lead investor for the Quantum Fund and hedge fund manager[89]
- William Ford, chairman and CEO of General Atlantic[89]
- Kenneth Griffin, hedge fund manager and CEO of Citadel LLC[89]
- Hugh Hewitt, radio host, commentator[90]
- Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager (Independent)[89]
- John F. W. Rogers, executive vice president, chief of staff and secretary to the board of Goldman Sachs[80]
- Stephen Scharzman, chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group[89]
- Dan Senor, political advisor to Mitt Romney[80]
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (previously endorsed Parnell)[91]
- Executive branch officials
- Ben Carson, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)[63]
- Rick Perry, U.S. Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and Governor of Texas (2000–2015)[63]
- Ryan Zinke, United States Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019) and U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017)[63]
- U.S. Representatives
- Fred Keller, PA-12 (2019–2023)[88] (previously endorsed Bartos)[71]
- Lloyd Smucker, PA-11; formerly PA-16 (2017–present)[88]
- Statewide officials
- Sean Reyes, Attorney General of Utah (2013–present)[63]
- Individuals
- Shmuley Boteach, Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host[92]
- Sean Hannity, conservative political commentator[16]
- Ted Nugent, musician and activist[63]
- Executive branch officials
- Frank Baxter, U.S. Ambassador to Uruguay (2006–2009)[63]
- Robin Bernstein, U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic (2018–2021)[63]
- Ulrich Brechbuhl, Counselor of the U.S. Department of State (2018–2021)[63]
- David Cornstein, U.S. Ambassador to Hungary (2018–2020)[63]
- Randy Evans, U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg (2018–2021)[63]
- David M. Friedman, U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021)[63]
- Callista Gingrich, U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See (2017–2021)[63]
- George Edward Glass, U.S. Ambassador to Portugal (2017–2021)[63]
- Pete Hoekstra, U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands (2018–2021) and U.S. Representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district (1993–2011)[63]
- W. Robert Kohorst, U.S. Ambassador to Croatia (2018–2021)[63]
- Lana Marks, U.S. Ambassador to South Africa (2019–2021)[63]
- Jamie McCourt, U.S. Ambassador to France and Monaco (2017–2021)[63]
- Ed McMullen, U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2017–2021)[63]
- Robert O'Brien, National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[93]
- Robert Pence, U.S. Ambassador to Finland (2018–2021)[63]
- Adrian Zuckerman, U.S. Ambassador to Romania (2019–2021)[63]
- U.S. Senators
- Scott Brown, 19th United States Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020) and U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013)[63]
- U.S. Representatives
- Newt Gingrich, U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999) and 50th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995–1999)[94]
- State legislators
- Matt Baker, speaker pro tempore of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2018), state representative from the 68th district (1993–2018)[63]
- David Maloney, state representative from the 130th district (2011–present)[63]
- Greg Rothman, state representative from the 87th district (2015–2022)[63]
- U.S. Presidents
Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)(switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[95]
- U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present)[96]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[97]
- Ronny Jackson, Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[98]
- Mike Kelly, PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)[99]
Guy Reschenthaler, PA-14 (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[99]
- Individuals
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of President Donald Trump[60]
- Executive branch officials
- Bill Kristol, Chief of Staff to the Vice President (1989–1993), founder of The Weekly Standard, and editor of The Bulwark (Democrat)[47]
- Miles Taylor, chief of staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019)[100]
- U.S. Representatives
- James Greenwood, PA-08 (1993–2005)[47]
- Joe Walsh, Illinois's 8th congressional district (2011–2013) (Independent)[100]
- Organizations
- Newspapers and other media
Polling[edit]
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kathy Barnette | Jeff Bartos | David McCormick | Mehmet Oz | Carla Sands | Other[b] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | May 3–16, 2022 | May 17, 2022 | 24.2% | 5.4% | 19.6% | 26.8% | 6.0% | 18.0% | Oz +2.6 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Kathy Barnette | Jeff Bartos | David McCormick | Mehmet Oz | Sean Parnell | Carla Sands | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 14–16, 2022 | 1,195 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 27% | 7% | 22% | 29% | – | 7% | 4%[d] | 6% | |||||
| Emerson College | May 14–15, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 5% | 21% | 28% | – | 6% | 1%[e] | 15% | |||||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 12–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 2% | 11% | 28% | – | 3% | 3%[f] | 26% | |||||
| Osage Research (R)[A] | May 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 24% | 6% | 25% | 24% | – | 7% | 1%[g] | 13% | |||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | May 7–9, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 21% | 5% | 19% | 23% | – | 5% | 3%[h] | 26% | |||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 23% | 7% | 22% | 25% | – | 7% | 2%[h] | 15% | |||||
| Fox News | May 3–7, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 19% | 7% | 20% | 22% | – | 8% | 4%[i] | 18% | |||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | April 20 – May 1, 2022 | 325 (RV) | ± 6.9% | 12% | 2% | 16% | 18% | – | 5% | 6%[j] | 39% | |||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 11–13, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 18% | 8% | 20% | 23% | – | 11% | 3%[k] | 17% | |||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 30 – April 10, 2022 | 317 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 16% | – | 5% | 8%[l] | 43% | |||||
| Eagle Consulting Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 9% | 6% | 18% | 11% | – | 9% | 2%[m] | 45% | |||||
| Emerson College | April 3–4, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 10% | 9% | 18% | 17% | – | 8% | 6%[n] | 33% | |||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | March 29 – April 3, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 8% | 22% | 16% | – | 11% | 1%[g] | – | |||||
| Emerson College | March 26–28, 2022 | 372 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 6% | 5% | 14% | 14% | – | 6% | 3%[o] | 51% | |||||
| Basswood Research (R)[B] | March 19–21, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 11% | 5% | 22% | 25% | – | 13% | 1%[g] | 23% | |||||
| Fox News | March 2–6, 2022 | 960 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 15% | – | 6% | 3%[p] | 31% | |||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | February 21–27, 2022 | 178 (LV) | ± 10.1% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 10% | – | 11% | 3% | 53% | |||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~February 23, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 5% | 24% | 18% | – | 11% | 1%[g] | – | |||||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] | February 16–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 24% | 18% | – | – | 31% | 27% | |||||
| Osage Research (R)[A] | February 13–16, 2022 | 825 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | 6% | 24% | 21% | – | 11% | 3% | 28% | |||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~February 9, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 5% | 17% | 23% | – | 17% | 1%[g] | – | |||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 1–4, 2022 | 1,070 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 9% | 7% | 16% | 27% | – | 15% | 6%[q] | 22% | |||||
| Osage Research (R)[A] | January 31 – February 2, 2022 | – (LV) | – | – | – | 19% | 29% | – | – | – | – | |||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~January 6, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 8% | 13% | 31% | – | 12% | – | – | |||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 13–16, 2021 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 3% | – | 19% | – | 7% | 12%[r] | 51% | |||||
| Echelon Insights (R) | December 1–3, 2021 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 7% | 4% | – | 11% | – | 5% | 10%[s] | 63% | |||||
| Parnell withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Civiqs (D) | October 31 – November 5, 2021 | 799 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 7% | 6% | – | – | 31% | 8% | 2%[t] | 54% | |||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 18–24, 2021 | 184 (RV) | ± 8.8% | 3% | 2% | – | – | 11% | 2% | 3%[u] | 78% | |||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[D] | October 11–14, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 7% | – | – | 27% | 4% | 5% | 57% | |||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 9–15, 2021 | 154 (RV) | ± 10.9% | 6% | 4% | – | – | 14% | 1% | 10%[v] | 66% | |||||
Results[edit]
Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor.[103] A mandatory recount then began.[104][103] Former president Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[105] With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes.[106] A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.[107]
On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[108]
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mehmet Oz | 420,168 | 31.21% | |
| Republican | David McCormick | 419,218 | 31.14% | |
| Republican | Kathy Barnette | 331,903 | 24.66% | |
| Republican | Carla Sands | 73,360 | 5.45% | |
| Republican | Jeff Bartos | 66,684 | 4.95% | |
| Republican | Sean Gale | 20,266 | 1.51% | |
| Republican | George Bochetto | 14,492 | 1.08% | |
| Total votes | 1,346,091 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary[edit]
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Campaign[edit]
The first two major Democratic candidates were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[109] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[109] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[110] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a political moderate, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[111][112]
As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[113] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[114] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[114]
In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[115]
Lamb received the assistance of the “Penn Progress” Super PAC,[116][117] which spent the entirety of its funds in support of Lamb's campaign.[118] Lamb worked closely with the Super PAC, and participated in donor calls it arranged.[119][120] The Penn Progress Super PAC bankrolled TV ads which sought to portray Fetterman as a "self-described democratic socialist." Within a day of airing, PolitiFact and Factcheck.org called the attack ad false,[121] The Philadelphia Inquirer commented that Fetterman had never actually described himself that way,[122] the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia stopped broadcasting the ad,[123] and Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Lamb to disavow it.[124]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–2023), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[51][125][27][126]
Eliminated in primary[edit]
- Malcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present)[127][27]
- Alexandria Khalil, Jenkintown borough councilor (2019–present)[128][27]
- Conor Lamb, U.S. representative for PA-17, formerly PA-18 (2018–2023)[129][130][27]
Disqualified[edit]
- Kael Dougherty, data operations associate[131]
- Larry Johnson, attorney[132]
- Alan Shank, retail worker[133]
- Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker[134]
- Lew Tapera, retail worker[135]
Withdrew[edit]
- Val Arkoosh, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2014–present) and physician[136][114]
- Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital[137][115]
- John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997)[138][139]
- Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (endorsed Kenyatta)[140]
- Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former mayor of Philadelphia John Street (endorsed Lamb)[141]
Declined[edit]
- Brendan Boyle, U.S. representative for PA-02; formerly PA-13 (2015–present)[142]
- Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (ran for re-election)[143]
- Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for PA-10 in 2020[144]
- Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for PA-06 (2019–present) (ran for re-election)[145]
- Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–2024) (endorsed Lamb)[146]
- Joe Sestak, U.S. representative for PA-07 (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for president in 2020[147]
- Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–2023) (ran for Governor)[148][149]
- Joe Torsella, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021)[150][151]
- Susan Wild, U.S. representative for PA-07; formerly PA-15 (2018–present) (ran for re-election)[152]
Debates[edit]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| John Fetterman | Malcolm Kenyatta | Conor Lamb | |||||
| 1 | Apr. 3, 2022 | Muhlenberg College | Becky Corbin Jenny DeHuff Ari Mittleman | Video | A[w] | P | P |
| 2 | Apr. 21, 2022 | Nexstar/WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester | Video | P | P | P |
Endorsements[edit]
- State senators
- Maria Collett, 12th district (2019–present)[63]
- Judy Schwank, 11th district (2011–present)[63]
- State representatives
- Tim Briggs, 149th district (2009–present)[63]
Joe Ciresi, 146th district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[63]- Mary Jo Daley, 148th district (2013–present)[63]
- Pam DeLissio, 194th district (2011–present)[63]
- Leanne Krueger, 161st district (2015–present)[63]
Steve Malagari, 53rd district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[63]- Ben Sanchez, 153rd district (2018–present)[63]
Joe Webster, 150th district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[63]
- Organizations
- Local officials
- Paige Gebhardt Cognetti, Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)[155]
- Labor unions
- AFSCME – District Council 47[63]
- American Postal Workers Union – Pennsylvania chapter[156]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1776[157]
- United Steelworkers District 10[157]
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[158]
- MarchOn[159]
- National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[157]
- Newspapers and other media
- The Philadelphia Tribune (Democratic primary only)[160]
- Individuals
- Sean McElwee, activist and co-founder of Data for Progress[161][162]
- U.S. Representatives
- Sharice Davids, Kansas's 3rd congressional district (2019–present)[63]
- Al Green, Texas's 9th congressional district (2005–present)[63]
- State representatives
- Jessica Benham, 36th district (2021–present)[163]
- Matthew Bradford, 70th district (2009–present)[63]
- Donna Bullock, 195th district (2015–present)[63]
- Danilo Burgos, 197th district (2019–present)[63]
- Nancy Guenst, 152nd district (2021–present)[63]
- Joseph Hohenstein, 177th district (2019–present)[63]
- Stephen Kinsey, 201st district (2013–present)[63]
- Maureen Madden, 115th district (2009–present)[63]
- Jeanne McNeill, 133rd district (2018–present)[63]
- Local officials
- Kendra Brooks, at-large Philadelphia City Councilor (2020–present) (Working Families Party)[63]
- Jamie Gauthier, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 3 (2020–present)[164]
- Katherine Gilmore Richardson, at-large Philadelphia City Councilor (2020–present)[164]
- Mark Squilla, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 1 (2020–present) (2012–present)[63]
- Isaiah Thomas, at-large Philadelphia City Councilor (2020–present)[164]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees District Council #33[165]
- American Federation of Teachers[166]
- Service Employees International Union[167]
- Organizations
- Political parties
- Individuals
- Lee Daniels, movie director, screenwriter, and movie producer[172]
- Gloria Steinem, author, women's rights activist[173]
- U.S. Representatives
- Bob Brady, PA-01 (1998–2019), Chair of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present)[174]
- Matt Cartwright, PA-08; formerly PA-17 (2013–present)[175]
- Mike Doyle, PA-18; formerly PA-14 and PA-18 (1995–2023)[63]
- Joe Neguse, Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[63]
- State senators
- Jim Brewster, 45th district (2010–present)[176]
- Jay Costa, Democratic Leader (2011–present) from the 43rd district (1996–present)[177]
- Wayne Fontana, 42nd district (2005–present)[176]
- Steve Santarsiero, 10th district (2019–present)[63]
- Sharif Street, 3rd district (2017–present)[178]
- State representatives
- Ryan Bizzarro, 3rd district (2013–present)[179]
- Amen Brown, 190th district (2021–present)[63]
- Michael Carroll, 118th district (2007–2022)[175]
- Joe Ciresi, 146th district (2019–present)[63]
- Tina Davis, 141st district (2011–present)[63]
- Dan Deasy, 27th district (2009–present)[63]
- Frank Dermody, Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2020) from the 33rd district (1990–2020)[129]
- Dan Frankel, 23rd district (1999–present)[63]
- Patrick Harkins, 1st district (2006–present)[63]
- Kristine Howard, 167th district (2019–present)[63]
- William Kortz, 38th district (2007–2021)[63]
- Bridget Malloy Kosierowski, 114th district (2019–present)[175]
- Anita Kulik, 45th district (2017–present)[63]
- Mark Longietti, 7th district (2007–2022)[63]
- Steve Malagari, 53rd district (2019–present)[63]
- Robert Matzie, 16th district (2009–present)[63]
- Robert Merski, 2nd district (2019–present)[63]
- Dan Miller, 42nd district (2013–present)[63]
- Gerald Mullery, 199th district (2011–2022)[175]
- Kyle Mullins, 112th district (2018–present)[175]
- Napoleon Nelson, 154th district (2021–present)[63]
- Eddie Day Pashinski, 121st district (2007–present)[175]
- Nick Pisciottano, 38th district (2021–present)[63]
- Mark Rozzi, 126th district (2013–present)[63]
- Pam Snyder, 50th District (2013–2022)[180]
- Joe Webster, 150th district (2019–present)[63]
- Jake Wheatley, 19th district (2003–2022)[180]
- Dan Williams, 74th district (2019–present)[63]
- Local officials
- Ricky Burgess, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2008–present)[63]
- Anthony Coghill, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2018–present)[63]
- Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County Executive (2012–present)[130]
- Rick Gray, Mayor of Lancaster (2006–2018)[63]
- Curtis J. Jones Jr., Philadelphia City Councilor from the 4th district (2008–present)[63]
- Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present)[181]
- Thomas J. Murphy Jr., Mayor of Pittsburgh (1994–2006)[129]
- Corey O'Connor, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2012–2022)[63]
- J. William Reynolds, Mayor of Bethlehem (2022–present)[63]
- Jack Stollsteimer, Delaware County District Attorney (2020–present)[182]
- John Street, Mayor of Philadelphia (2000–2008)[178]
- Matthew Tuerk, Mayor of Allentown (2022–present)[63]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[63]
- American Federation of Teachers–Pittsburgh chapter[183]
- Communications Workers of America[184]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local #3
- International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers Local #2
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local #1044
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local #5, #98, #269, #654[185][186]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local #205[63]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local #66[63]
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Local #21, #51[63]
- Laborers' International Union of Eastern Pennsylvania[63]
- Laborers' International Union of Western Pennsylvania[63]
- Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local #592[185][187]
- Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals[188]
- Philadelphia Building & Construction Trades Council[185]
- Pittsburgh Firefighters IAFF[63]
- Sheet Metal Workers' International Association Local #12[63]
- United Mine Workers Association[63]
- Utility Workers Union of America[63]
- Organizations
- National Organization for Women[189]
- Philadelphia Democratic Party[190]
- Stonewall Democrats PGH[191]
- VoteVets.org[192]
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Nina Ahmad, 2020 Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania Auditor General[189]
- James Carville, political consultant and head strategist of the 1992 Bill Clinton presidential campaign[194]
- Steve Cozen, founder and chairman of the Philadelphia-based law firm Cozen O'Connor[195]
Polling[edit]
- Graphical summary
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Fetterman | Malcolm Kenyatta | Conor Lamb | Other [b] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | March 26 – May 1, 2022 | May 5, 2022 | 43.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 39.0% | Fetterman +31.0 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Val Arkoosh | John Fetterman | Malcolm Kenyatta | Conor Lamb | Sharif Street | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | April 20 – May 1, 2022 | 357 (RV) | ± 6.6% | – | 53% | 4% | 14% | – | 6%[y] | 22% | ||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 30 – April 10, 2022 | 356 (RV) | ± 6.2% | – | 41% | 4% | 17% | – | 9%[z] | 26% | ||||||
| GBAO (D)[E] | April 5–7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 44% | 17% | 19% | – | 4%[aa] | 15% | ||||||
| Emerson College | March 26–28, 2022 | 471 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | 33% | 8% | 10% | – | 12%[ab] | 37% | ||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | February 21–27, 2022 | 185 (LV) | ± 9.9% | – | 28% | 2% | 15% | – | 7% | 50% | ||||||
| Impact Research (D)[F] | Early February 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 47% | 7% | 17% | 5% | 8% | 13% | ||||||
| Arkoosh withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | January 26–31, 2022 | 730 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 46% | 12% | 16% | – | – | 22% | ||||||
| Street withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| GQR Research (D)[G] | December 14–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 44% | 20% | 15% | – | 2% | 12% | ||||||
| GBAO (D)[E] | November 16–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 42% | 15% | 16% | – | – | 21% | ||||||
| Civiqs (D) | October 31 – November 5, 2021 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 2% | 52% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 6% | 21% | ||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 18–24, 2021 | 208 (RV) | ± 8.2% | 4% | 34% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 37% | ||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 9–15, 2021 | 175 (RV) | ± 10.2% | 6% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 0% | 3% | 42% | ||||||
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 302 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 5% | 40% | 9% | 21% | 2% | 8%[ac] | 14% | ||||||
Results[edit]
Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in the Delaware Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, while in contrast Fetterman's position as lieutenant governor gave him statewide name recognition. In addition, the far more contested Republican primary had consumed media attention that Lamb might have otherwise used to gain more name recognition.[198] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed".[199]
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Fetterman | 753,557 | 58.65% | |
| Democratic | Conor Lamb | 337,498 | 26.27% | |
| Democratic | Malcolm Kenyatta | 139,393 | 10.85% | |
| Democratic | Alexandria Khalil | 54,460 | 4.24% | |
| Total votes | 1,284,908 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian convention[edit]
.png)
The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[200][201]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
Withdrew[edit]
- Steve Scheetz, powder coater and former chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party (2013–2015, 2019–2021)[204][205][206][207]
Green convention[edit]
The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[200][201]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Richard L. Weiss, lawyer, nominee for attorney general in 2020, and nominee for judge of the Allegheny County Court of Common Pleas in 2021[208]
Independents and other parties[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Qualified for ballot[edit]
- Dan Wassmer (Keystone nominee), lawyer and Libertarian nominee for attorney general in 2020[200][201]
Declared write-in[edit]
- Ron Johnson (Constitution nominee), former Fredonia borough councilor[209][41][210] (originally ran as a Republican)
- Quincy Magee, inspector of elections for Philadelphia's 44th ward[211][212][213]
Withdrew[edit]
- Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and Republican candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (originally ran as a Republican, endorsed Fetterman)[214][49][215][216]
General election[edit]
Campaign[edit]
Fetterman's campaign framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman also flew banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame.[217] In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from".[218]
Oz's campaign criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and made an issue of Fetterman's health.[219][220][221] In September, Oz published his medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate.[222][223][224] Oz's campaign also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.[225][226]
Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz until late October was criticized by Oz's campaign.[227][228] Fetterman attributed the delay in debating to lingering issues from his stroke and his team criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery.[229][230] A single debate was held on October 25.[229]
Crudités video[edit]
On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral.[231] In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the allegedly high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden.
The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors; Fetterman himself replied saying that Pennsylvanians refer to crudités as "veggie trays".[232][233] Oz's choice of a raw head of broccoli, asparagus, and multiple pounds of carrots, with guacamole and salsa, was described as "bizarre" by many.[234] Others expressed confusion at Oz's statement that the $20 cost of the vegetables and dips "doesn't even include the tequila", as tequila is not a traditional accompaniment to crudités and liquor is not sold in grocery stores in Pennsylvania.[232] Many observers noted Oz quoted the wrong price tag for the salsa and falsely suggested the broccoli was $2 per head when it was $2 per pound.[235]
The number of internet searches for crudités dramatically increased in the aftermath of the video's circulation. Oz appearing to confuse the Redner's and Wegmans supermarket chains led to the name "Wegner's" trending on Twitter and a parody Twitter account called "Wegner's Groceries" gaining popularity.[232] The Fetterman campaign sought to capitalize on the video by introducing merchandise referencing it.[236] When asked if the video made him unrelatable to voters, Oz emphasized he helped others throughout his career and would continue to help if elected.[237]
Debate[edit]
In the October 25 debate, a special arrangement of transcription monitors was put in place to assist Fetterman with his auditory processing issue. According to the Associated Press, Fetterman "struggled at times to explain his positions and often spoke haltingly", with Fetterman facing issues completing sentences and frequently pausing after questions were asked. Oz was described as being "more at home on the debate stage" and presented himself as a moderate Republican, and did not reference Fetterman's health condition. Independent health experts said that Fetterman was recovering "remarkably well".[238] Fetterman particularly struggled answering a question regarding his previous opposition to fracking by stating he always supported fracking, while Oz answered a question on abortion by saying that the federal government should have no role in states' abortion decisions, instead leaving abortion decisions to "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders".[239][240][241][242]
According to Politico and The Guardian, Fetterman "struggled" during the debate, and some Democrats questioned why he chose to debate at all.[243][244] After the debate, the Fetterman campaign claimed that the closed captioning system provided by Nexstar Media Group gave incorrect and slow captions. Nexstar denied the claims, arguing the captioning "worked as expected" and that the Fetterman team had had the opportunity for two rehearsals with the equipment and opted to only do one.[245]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[246] | Tossup | October 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[247] | Tossup | August 25, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[248] | Lean R | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico[249] | Tossup | June 8, 2022 |
| RCP[250] | Tossup | August 14, 2022 |
| Fox News[251] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| DDHQ[252] | Tossup | October 15, 2022 |
| 538[253] | Tossup | November 7, 2022 |
| The Economist[254] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
Debates[edit]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Mehmet Oz | John Fetterman | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 25, 2022 | Nexstar/WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester | YouTube | P | P |
Endorsements[edit]
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[91]
- Executive branch officials
- David Bernhardt, U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2019–2021)[255]
- Ben Carson, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)[63]
- David Friedman, U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021)[256]
- Richard Grenell, Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), Acting Director of National Intelligence (2020)[257]
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[258]
- Steven Law, United States Deputy Secretary of Labor (2003–2007)[259]
- David McCormick, Under Secretary of the Treasury (2007–2009), Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security (2005–2006), 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania[260]
- Rick Perry, U.S. Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and Governor of Texas (2000–2015)[63]
- Tom Ridge, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2003–2005), United States Homeland Security Advisor (2001–2003), Governor of Pennsylvania (1995–2001)[261]
- Wilbur Ross, U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2017–2021)[262]
- Carla Sands, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021), 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania[263]
- Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)[264]
- Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019)[264]
- Jim Schultz, Associate White House Counsel (2017)[265]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019) and U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017)[63]
- U.S. Senators
- Susan Collins, Maine (1997–present)[266]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[267]
- Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019–present)[63]
- John Kennedy, Louisiana (2017–present)[268]
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[269]
- Mitch McConnell, Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–present), Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[270]
- Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[271]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[255]
- Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania (2011–2023)[272]
- U.S. Representatives
- Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-01; formerly PA-08 (2017–present)[273]
- Newt Gingrich, Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979-1999), Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999)[274]
- John Joyce, PA-13 (2019–present)[275][273]
- Fred Keller, PA-12 (2019–2023)[88][273]
- Mike Kelly, PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)[276][273]
- Dan Meuser, PA-09 (2019–present)[273]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[273]
- Guy Reschenthaler, PA-14 (2019–present)[273]
- Lloyd Smucker, PA-11; formerly PA-16 (2017–present)[88][273]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-15; formerly PA-05 (2009–present)[273]
- Statewide officials
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)[277]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present)[278]
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present)[275][263]
- George Pataki, Governor of New York (1995–2006)[279]
- Sean Reyes, Attorney General of Utah (2013–present)[63]
- State senators
- Lisa Baker, 20th district (2007–present)[280]
- Cris Dush, 25th district (2020–present)[281]
- Mike Regan, 31st district (2017–present)[282]
- Holly Schepisi, New Jersey state senator from the 39th district (2021–present)[283]
- Judy Ward, 30th district (2019–present)[284]
- State representatives
- Carrie DelRosso, 33rd district (2021–2022)[285]
- Torren Ecker, 193rd district (2019–present)[263]
- Jim Gregory, 80th district (2018–present)[284]
- Aaron Kaufer, 120th district (2015–present)[280]
- Dan Moul, 91st district (2007–present)[286]
- Greg Rothman, 87th district (2015–2022)[263]
- Frank Ryan, 101st district (2017–2022)[263]
- Lou Schmitt, 79th district (2019–present)[284]
- Guy Talarico, New Jersey state assemblyman from the 38th district (1997–2002)[283]
- Martina White, 170th district (2015–present)[285]
- Local officials
- Tom Knox, former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia for Management and Productivity (1992-1993) (Democrat)[287]
- Justin Taylor, Mayor of Carbondale, Pennsylvania (2003–present) (Democrat) [288]
- Party officials
- Thomas O. Hicks Jr., Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee (2019–present)[289]
- Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the Republican National Committee (2017–present)[290]
- Steve Wynn, Finance Chair of the Republican National Committee (2017–2018)[262]
- Labor unions
- EB Jermyn Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #2[291]
- Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #91[292]
- National Council of Prison Locals[255]
- Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association[255]
- Pennsylvania State Troopers Association[293]
- Philadelphia Firefighters' and Paramedics' Union Local 22[255]
- Philadelphia Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #5[294]
- Organizations
- American Crossroads[259]
- Americans for Prosperity Action[295]
- The Conservative Caucus[296]
- Huck PAC[297]
- Log Cabin Republicans[298]
- National Federation of Independent Business[299]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[271]
- NRA - Political Victory Fund[300][301]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[302]
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America[303]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[304]
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Kathy Barnette, political commentator and candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania in 2022[306]
- Jeff Bartos, 2018 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania[307]
Shmuley Boteach, Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host[92] (rescinded endorsement)[308]- Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America[303]
- José Fanjul, businessman[309]
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality[255]
- Harold Hamm, businessman[88]
- Sean Hannity, conservative political commentator[16]
- Daniel Lubetzky, businessman and founder of Kind[310]
- Gene Marks, columnist[311]
- Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[312]
- Ted Nugent, musician and activist[63]
- U.S. Presidents
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present)[313]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[314]
- Executive Branch officials
- Kamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States (2021–present)[315]
- Patrick Murphy, U.S. Secretary of the Army (2016) and former U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2007–2011)[316]
- Statewide officials
- Josh Shapiro, Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023) and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee[317]
- U.S. Senators
- Sherrod Brown, Ohio (2007–present)[318]
- Bob Casey Jr., Pennsylvania (2007–present)[313]
- Chris Coons, Delaware (2010–present)[319]
- Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota (2007–present)[320]
- Ben Nelson, Nebraska (2001–2013)[321]
- Gary Peters, Michigan (2015–present)[322]
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)[323]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts (2013–present)[324]
- U.S. Representatives
- Brendan Boyle, PA-02; formerly PA-13 (2015–present)[325]
- Bob Brady, PA-01 (1998–2019), Chair of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present)[326]
- Matt Cartwright, PA-08 (2013–present)[327]
- Madeleine Dean, PA-04 (2019–present)[328]
- Dwight Evans, PA-03 (2019–present)[329]
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[330]
- Chrissy Houlahan, PA-06 (2019–present)[328]
- Conor Lamb, PA-17 (2018–2023) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[331]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York's 14th congressional district (2019–present)[332]
- Mary Gay Scanlon, PA-05 (2019–present) and PA-07 (2018–2019)[328]
- Susan Wild, PA-07; formerly PA-15 (2018–present)[328]
- State senators
- Amanda Cappelletti, 17th district (2020–present)[321]
- Anthony Williams, 8th district (1999–present)[321]
- State representatives
- Tina Davis, 141st district (2011–present)[316]
- Malcolm Kenyatta, 181st district (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[333]
- Patty Kim, state representative from the 103rd district (2013–present)[334]
- Summer Lee, state representative from the 34th district (2019–2022) and 2022 Democratic nominee for PA-12[335]
- Joanna McClinton, 191st district (2015–present)[336][337]
- Darisha Parker, 198th district (2020–present)[321]
- Local officials
- Paige Cognetti, Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)[155]
- Ed Gainey, Mayor of Pittsburgh (2022–present)[335]
- Ezra Nanes, Mayor of State College (2022–present)[338]
- Labor unions
- AFL–CIO[339]
- AFSCME – District Council 47[63]
- American Postal Workers Union – Pennsylvania chapter[156]
- Pennsylvania State Education Association[340]
- Service Employees International Union[330]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1776[157]
- United Mine Workers[341]
- United Steelworkers District 10[157]
- Organizations
- Armenian National Committee of America[342]
- Brand New Congress[343]
- Council for a Livable World[158]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[344]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[345]
- End Citizens United[346]
- Giffords[347]
- Human Rights Campaign[348]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[349]
- J Street[350]
- Jewish Dems[351]
- League of Conservation Voters[352]
- Let America Vote[346]
- MarchOn[159]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[353]
- National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[157]
- Our Revolution[354]
- Peace Action[355]
- Pennsylvania Democratic Party[356]
- Planned Parenthood[357]
- Population Connection Action Fund[358]
- Sierra Club[359]
- Newspapers
- The Citizens' Voice[360]
- The Patriot-News[361]
- The Philadelphia Inquirer[362]
- The Philadelphia Tribune[363]
- The York Dispatch[364]
- Individuals
- Michael Fanone, former police officer involved in the January 6 United States Capitol attack[365]
- Franco Harris, former professional football player[366][367]
- Brian Keene, author[368]
- Dave Matthews, singer[369]
- Sean McElwee, activist and co-founder of Fetterman polling firm Data for Progress[161][162]
- Paul Rudd, actor[370]
- Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022 (Independent, former Republican)[216]
- Kurt Vile, singer and record producer[369]
- Kerry Washington, actress[371]
- Oprah Winfrey, businesswoman and former talk show host who introduced Oz[372]
Polling[edit]
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mehmet Oz (R) | John Fetterman (D) | Other [b] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 24 – November 3, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.2% | 46.8% | 6.0% | Oz +0.4% |
| FiveThirtyEight | December 3, 2021 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 5.7% | Oz +0.5% |
| 270towin | November 3–4, 2022 | November 4, 2022 | 46.8% | 46.5% | 6.7% | Oz +0.3% |
| Average | 47.1% | 46.7% | 6.2% | Oz +0.4% | ||
- Graphical summary
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Mehmet Oz (R) | John Fetterman (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 47% | 2%[ad] | 5% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 46% | 3%[ae] | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 3, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 46% | 4%[af] | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 1–3, 2022 | 1,097 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 4% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 4%[ag] | 5% |
| Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 50% | 1%[ah] | 5% |
| 1,021 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 1%[ah] | 4% | ||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | October 28 – November 1, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 2%[ai] | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 3%[aj] | 4% |
| 48% | 47% | 4%[ak] | – | ||||
| Suffolk University | October 27–30, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 1%[al] | 7% |
| Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 6%[am] | 6% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | October 27–28, 2022 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 2% |
| co/efficient (R) | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,716 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | 4%[an] | 2% |
| Muhlenberg College | October 24–28, 2022 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 47% | 3%[ao] | 2% |
| Wick Insights (R) | October 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 46% | 4%[an] | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 26, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | 4%[ap] | 4% |
| Siena Research/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | <1%[aq] | 6% |
| YouGov/CBS News | October 21–24, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 51% | 1%[ar] | – |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 14–23, 2022 | 620 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 45% | 4%[as] | 11% |
| 384 (LV) | ± 6.8% | 45% | 49% | – | – | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 19–20, 2022 | 972 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 6%[at] | 6% |
| Echelon Insights | October 18–20, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 43% | 46% | 4%[au] | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 19, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 46% | 3%[av] | 5% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 901 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 52% | 6%[aw] | – |
| 703 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | 3%[ax] | – | ||
| Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 3%[ay] | 3% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | October 10–12, 2022 | 857 (RV) | – | 48% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | October 4–12, 2022 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 2%[az] | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[H] | October 8–11, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 4%[ba] | 4% |
| Center Street PAC (D)[I] | September 29–30, 2022 | 971 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 34% | 50% | – | 16% |
| 568 (LV) | 36% | 55% | – | 9% | |||
| Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 46% | 3%[bb] | 11% |
| Emerson College | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 5%[bc] | 8% |
| Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 45% | 7%[bd] | 7% |
| 827 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | 3%[be] | 5% | ||
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 19–25, 2022 | 517 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 23–24, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | 6%[bf] | 8% |
| Marist College | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 51% | <1%[bg] | 7% |
| 1,043 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 51% | – | 4% | ||
| The Phillips Academy Poll | September 16–19, 2022 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 13–16, 2022 | 420 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 44% | 49% | 5%[bh] | 2% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 13–15, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | 4%[bi] | 2% |
| YouGov/CBS News | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,194 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 52% | – | 1% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 57% | – | 7% |
| RABA Research | August 31 – September 3, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 49% | 3%[ay] | 8% |
| Kurt Jetta (D)[I] | August 31 – September 1, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 33% | 51% | – | 15% |
| 616 (LV) | 36% | 55% | – | 9% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 22–29, 2022 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 49% | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | 3% | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 15–21, 2022 | 522 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 36% | 45% | 9%[bj] | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 15–18, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 48% | 4%[bk] | 5% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | August 7–10, 2022 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 52% | – | 11% |
| Kurt Jetta (D)[I] | July 29 – August 1, 2022 | 1,206 (A) | ± 2.8% | 30% | 47% | – | 23% |
| 997 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 48% | – | 20% | ||
| 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 38% | 52% | – | 10% | ||
| Fox News | July 22–26, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 47% | 5%[bl] | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[J] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 38% | 44% | 4% | 15% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 49% | – | 12% |
| Beacon Research (D)[K] | July 5–20, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 47% | 1% | 13% |
| 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 50% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Global Strategy Group (D)[L] | July 14–19, 2022 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 51% | – | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | June 12–19, 2022 | 1,382 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 50% | – | 6% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 16–17, 2022 | 535 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% |
| Suffolk University | June 10–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 3%[bm] | 13% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | ~May 10, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 33% | 51% | – | 16% |
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | December 3–5, 2021 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
- Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Jeff Bartos (R) | John Fetterman (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[M] | May 10–19, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 310 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
- Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Jeff Bartos (R) | Conor Lamb (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 341 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
- Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Sean Parnell (R) | John Fetterman (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[M] | May 10–19, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 310 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
- Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Sean Parnell (R) | Conor Lamb (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 341 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Results[edit]
Fetterman won the election by 4.9 percentage points, and was declared the winner in the early hours of November 9. The early victory came as a shock to many pundits, as the race was expected to take several days to project a winner;[373] the race was one of the first signs of the coming Democratic overperformance relative to the final polls in the midterms writ large.[citation needed] Oz underperformed former Republican president Donald Trump's performance in the 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania by 3.7 percentage points, while overperforming Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the concurrent gubernatorial race by 10 percentage points. As a result of this election, Democrats would be elected to both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947, and from this seat since 1962.[bn] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Fetterman won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Oz's defeat.[374]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Fetterman | 2,751,012 | 51.25% | +3.91% | |
| Republican | Mehmet Oz | 2,487,260 | 46.33% | -2.44% | |
| Libertarian | Erik Gerhardt | 72,887 | 1.36% | -2.53% | |
| Green | Richard L. Weiss | 30,434 | 0.57% | N/A | |
| Keystone | Dan Wassmer | 26,428 | 0.49% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,368,021 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By county[edit]
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